The exponential spread of COVID19 requires churches to re-evaluate their plans for returning to in-person gathering. Current CDC and many state health recommendations, including AZ and NM limit the number of people in any in-person gatherings to 10 or fewer. This article from Banner Health provides solid guidance.
Over the weekend Banner Health’s Chief Clinical Officer made the following statement and recommendations.
Here's what we know:
This week, the United States reached over 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in a single day. That is a record high since the start of the pandemic.
This past month in Arizona, we have seen gradual increases in daily case counts, hospitalizations, ICU beds in use and ventilators in use.
Arizona’s positivity rate is 7%. This means that of those who tested for COVID-19, about 7% are positive. Health experts recommend that communities maintain a positivity rate below 5%.
Arizona is experiencing uncontrolled spread of COVID-19, as are most other states in the country. Arizona’s reproduction rate for the SARS-CoV-2 virus is at 1.20, around the same level as early June. The reproduction rate means the virus is spreading at about the same rate it was in early June, and at a faster rate than desired. We want to see a reproduction rate under 1.0.
Banner officials are watching closely modeling from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which predicts COVID-19 deaths in Arizona will rise above 9,100 by February 1 with current conditions in place. If everyone in our state masks up, that number is projected to decrease by more than 1,000.
We can flatten Arizona’s curve—together. By wearing a mask, you are doing your part to save the lives of more than 1,000 Arizonans and prevent thousands of hospitalizations due to COVID-19.
I would also urge you to consider alternative ways to celebrate the holidays this year. Congregating in large groups and close contact with others outside of your immediate household put you and those around you at risk. Please consider our recommendations for holiday travel and how to celebrate safely this holiday season.
I know that we are asking a lot of you. Wearing a mask can be uncomfortable and tiresome. And, if you had told me earlier this year that I would not be spending Thanksgiving with my extended family and friends, I would not have believed you. Gathering with friends and family brings me much joy.
That said, keeping our loved ones safe is the best gift that we can give one another for the holidays. Make these sacrifices for your family and friends this year so that you can preserve many holiday celebrations in the years to come.
Please continue to:
Wear a mask whenever you are within 6 feet of others
Put at least 6 feet of distance between you and others
Avoid gatherings of 10 or more people
Wash your hands frequently
Frequently wipe down surfaces
Stay home if you're ill, except to receive medical care
If you haven't already, I also encourage you to get your flu shot now when respiratory illnesses are more prevalent. It's not too late!